After 715 days, India reports less than 1,000 daily fresh Covid-19 cases

India reported less than 1,000 daily fresh Covid-19 cases on Monday, after 715 days. Experts think that daily cases are unlikely to spike, leading to a ‘wave’, in the short term, and that the pandemic appears to be over.

According to the data released by the Union Ministry of Health in the morning, India reported 913 cases in the past 24 hours. This is the first time the country reported less than 1,000 Covid cases in a day, after a gap of 715 days (on April 18, 2020, the country had reported 991 fresh Covid cases). The data from the health ministry further showed that active cases have declined to less than 13,000 after 714 days.

Of the 36 states and Union Territories, 10 states recorded their least daily infections over the past fortnight in the past two years. Maharashtra, for instance, recorded less than 100 cases on March 19, for the first time since March 31, 2020.

Further analysis of the data shows that India’s daily recorded case count has been lower than its neighbours. On April 3, Bhutan recorded 1,308 infections against India’s daily case count of 913. As a proportion of total daily infections in Asia, India’s share at 0.22 per cent has reached its lowest in the past two years. At the height of the second wave, India accounted for over 80 per cent of Asia’s daily infections.

Experts like T Jacob John, former head of the Departments of Clinical Virology and Microbiology at CMC, Vellore, said: “The pandemic is over. We are now in the endemic stage. The level of immunity in the global population and India is at its highest point now through hybrid immunity – vaccination-led and infection-led.”

John also stressed that no new “wave” of infections —led by any of the Omicron recombinant variants — is likely in India. “One needs to remain cautious and pick up changes in the genomic sequencing, and not let the guards down …Mask-wearing and hand hygiene must be followed,” he said.

Nivedita Gupta, head of virology, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), said: “We are not likely to be in a bad situation for at least another couple of weeks.” Whether the new Covid variant XE can induce a spike in cases, Gupta said: “It is difficult to say. However, the probability seems low.”

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has flagged the Covid variant of mutation XE, found in the UK. It has suggested that this variant can be more transmissible than any Covid strain, so far. XE is a combination or recombinant of both sub-variants (BA.1 and BA.2) of Omicron. Indian experts, however, did not seem too worried about recombinant variants of Omicron.

E Sreekumar, chief scientific officer, Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Biotechnology, said that such new variants may cause some infections in the population, but a “wave” or sudden huge spike is unlikely. “Also, the disease may be mild-to-moderate and not lead to severe cases as the Indian population has already been exposed to the Omicron variant,” Sreekumar said.

Most cases of Omicron in India were of BA.2, Anurag Agrawal, director, Institute of Genomic and Integrative Biology had told Business Standard. “The Omicron wave India witnessed was mostly BA.2. That is different from ‘Deltacron’ — a wrong term used to describe rare recombinants. Omicron is BA.1, BA.2, and BA.3,” Agarwal had said.

Booster shot or not

Experts appear to be divided on the issue of whether India should open a booster or a third shot for its entire population. John said, “we have spent money on giving two doses to the entire population and if a third shot is not given, the benefits of the primary vaccination will go waste.”

Any vaccination regimen is incomplete without a booster shot, he said. The two-dose immunity would wane after sometime, but a third shot (which is given six months to a year after the primary dosing regimen) would give a long-term immunity.

On the other hand, Sreekumar felt a booster shot for all may not be the need of the hour. “Indians have already been exposed to the Omicron variant. Therefore, there are unlikely to be cases of serious infection with Omicron sub-variants or recombinant variations. A decision on the booster can be taken eventually,” he said.