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A Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) tsunami ripped through India with the party winning four of the five Assembly elections, comprehensively flattening the national opposition party, the Congress, and setting the tone for the general election in 2024.
The BJP is expected to form the government in Goa with 20 out of the 40 seats and the support of three independents. In Uttarakhand, the BJP proved most exit polls wrong by winning 47 seats of the 70 although top guns from both the BJP and the Congress — Chief Minister Pushkar Dhami and veteran Harish Rawat — bit the dust. The BJP is poised to form the government in Manipur.
However, it is Uttar Pradesh that reported the most impressive gains for the party: It won 255 seats of the 403, a loss of about 50 seats from 2017, but got a vote-share increase from 41 per cent to around 42 per cent and became the first party in several decades to come to power a second consecutive time, beating anti-incumbency.
ALSO READ: Election results show a tighter race in Uttar Pradesh, Goa and Manipur
In Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) trounced both the frontline parties — the Congress and the Shiromani Akali Dal — and prepared to form the government with 92 of the 117 Assembly seats. Some of the tallest political leaders in Punjab had to face shock electoral rejection — Akali Dal patriarch Parkash Singh Badal (Lambi), two-term chief minister Amarinder Singh (Patiala), Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi (who lost both constituencies he contested), Akali Dal leader and former Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Badal (Jalalabad), and state Congress chief Navjot Singh Sidhu (Amritsar East).
The main opposition party in Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party (SP), posted a good performance (111 seats, up from 47) but was nowhere near the midway mark.
With the vote share of the Congress and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) declining and the SP’s share going up almost proportionately, it became clear that it was not the BJP that had yielded space to the SP but other opposition parties like the BSP and the Congress. This was a message in itself: That if the opposition failed to unite, it would suffer further attrition. The result showed that voters had accepted the BJP’s main campaign point of bringing law and order in the state back on track and were appreciative of Central and state government-run welfare schemes, especially during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The results of this round of Assembly elections will immediately impact the opposition mood when Parliament reopens after recess on March 14, infusing fresh confidence into the government. Municipal elections in Delhi have been deferred but when they are held, AAP’s morale will be high: The BJP holds all the municipalities in Delhi currently. The forthcoming elections to the Brihannmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), likely later this year, will see a fortified BJP going head to head with the opposition Shiv Sena. And although now, after its performance in UP, the victory of the government’s candidate for president of India (elections due in June-July) is certain, opposition losses could galvanise it into getting its act together.
On the policy front, with its confidence renewed, the government will likely push contentious and delayed reform like the Electricity Bill and the Personal Data Protection law through Parliament. Pending social agenda projects like greater oversight over OTT platforms and imposition of a pan-India common uniform for school children could get more traction.
After the Congress’s disastrous performance, voices are going to be raised for greater accountability and responsibility. This could start as early as Friday, several senior leaders told Business Standard. The Group of 23, the ginger group that had sought accountability of the leadership, is set to meet within 48 hours, even as party leader Rahul Gandhi said there was need to introspect on the reasons behind the party’s losses.
“Till yesterday, those in his (Gandhji’s inner circle) were tweeting that the Congress was going to get more seats in Punjab than before. Could they not see what was coming?” asked an MP from a southern state. Benny Behanan, a sitting Congress MP from Kerala, said: “If the party does not prepare itself to act on reality, then it will continue to face more challenges in the future”. Rahul Gandhi’s tweet: “Humbly accept the people’s verdict. Best wishes to those who have won the mandate. My gratitude to all Congress workers and volunteers for their hard work and dedication. We will learn from this and keep working for the interests of the people of India” was met with derision by even senior party leaders.
Officially the party blamed former chief minister Amarinder Singh for the Punjab debacle: “In Punjab, Congress presented a new leadership through Charanjit Singh Channi who is son of the soil, but the entire anti-incumbency of 4.5 years under Captain Amarinder Singh could not be overcome and hence people voted for AAP for change,” spokesman R S Surjewala said at a press conference.
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